Here is a clip to a debate between Jim Grant and David Rosenberg; two of the best economic prognosticators in the business today. I read everything I can from these two guys, and it has a material impact on my investment choices for me and clients. What scares me is these two mentors from afar have diametrically opposed views on government bonds. In the short term, I agree with Rosenberg and have actually invested money in long term bonds. So far, it has cost me as bond yields have risen. In the long term, I concur with Grant. All assets move in secular cycles, usually 10-20 years long. We had bond rates similar to today in the early 60s, but then they rose to the upper teens by the early 80s. From there, rates have dropped to today’s rock bottom levels. They cannot go down much more so eventually the secular trend is up. I just think it is four or five years away as the delevering of the economy and debt takes place.
If you want real solid, thoughtful analysis and not the soundbite crud you get on CNBC, then you need to spend at least twenty minutes with this video. Watch each debators initial ten minute presentation to get a solid understanding of the issues. It goes beyond bonds to the economy as a whole.
http://www.grantspub.com/about/jim.cfm
